Demand and Business Forecasting

A uniquely designed programme offered to the working executives across India.

Session starts from 23 Nov, 2023

Session ends on 25 Nov, 2023


    Demand and Business Forecasting

    Of late due to changes in business environment globally, it has been an important issue for an organisation to understand the future of business. Level of demand is one of the most important factors affecting total revenue and profitability of a firm. Understanding of the determinants of demand for a product helps the managers in influencing the demand by adjusting price, advertisement and R&D expenditure and by pursuing other strategies. Forecasting future demand accurately is one of the difficult areas ,but it is indispensable. Firms need it for efficient planning of its' resources and determining the level of production, inventories, fixed investment, and manpower requirement to obtain the desired level of profit. Accurate forecasting requires high quality data, application of the appropriate forecasting techniques, and interpretation of the available results. This programme attempts to impart such knowledge and provide the experience with analytical and quantitative forecasting techniques that will prepare the participants to forecast the demand and relevant economic and business variables and comprehend the accuracy and reliability of the available forecasts. The programme is designed to: Identify thefactors thataffectdemandandbusiness. Exposetothedatatypesandidentificationproblem. Equip with qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques (with focus on non econometric techniques) Illustrate the forecasting techniques with the help of computer software.


    Get to know what the programme is all about


    The topics will be covered by lectures-cum case discussion methods, hands on practice with computer software with live case examples from industry will be provided in and outside the classroom.


    Junior, Senior, and Middle level Managers from public and private sector undertakings from any functional area


    1. Demand Analysis and Forecasting

    • Overview of demand analysis and business Forecasting.
    • Determinants of demand, Elasticity of demand, revenue and profit of a firm.
    • Determining what must be forecast to achieve your goal.
    • Steps and Characteristics of forecasting.
    • Forecasting in Time Horizon, Forecasting Hierarchy.
    • Developing Forecasting model.
    • Forecast Errors/Accuracy Rate – MAD, MSE AIC, SBC etc.

    2. Qualitative Forecasting Techniques:

    • Delphi, Sales force composite, Consumer Panel Survey, Judgmental boots trapping, etc.

    3. Quantitative Forecasting Techniques:

    • Time Series Analysis: Trend analysis and projection, cyclical variations, seasonal effects, random fluctuations.
    • Smoothing Techniques: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s, winter’s Model, Seasonal Decomposition, Box-Jenkins class of Forecasting models, like ARIMA, SARIMA, VARMA etc.
    • Econometric Techniques: Multiple Regression Analysis and Forecasting.
    • Forecasting Using Volatility models: ARCH, GARCH and its variants models.
    • Machine Learning: Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network, LSTM etc.

    4. Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Croxton Method


    5. Use of software packages for forecasting: R, Python, Excel, Minitab, Eviews, STATA etc.


    Demand estimation, market size determination, sales projection, Talent Demand Forecast, Attrition Forecast, Head Count Forecast, Diversity Forecast, Workforce planning, Electric power consumption forecast, average retail price of a product forecast, forecasting monthly diversity rate for an organisation, stock price forecast etc. 


    04 Dec- 08 Dec 2023- XLRI , Jamshedpur.


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    Before registering get to know a bit about your director


    Dr T A S Vijayaraghavan

    B.Sc. (Math), M. Stat. (ISI), PGD in SQC & OR (ISI), Fellow (IIM Bangalore)

    Demand and Business Forecasting

    Worked with the Xavier Institute of Management, Bhubaneswar and with the Central Institute of Road Transport, Pune prior to joining XLRI. Areas of interest include, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Operations Research, Statistics and Six Sigma, Transportation Planning and Management and Services Management. Have published papers in National and International Journals and a Member of few international and national professional bodies. Presently on the National Board of Studies of the Indian Institute of Materials Management (IIMM), Educational Chairperson of the India Round Table of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), US, member of the Logistics Sub Committee of the Eastern Region of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Member of the Sub Group on Transportation, Planning Commission for the Eleventh Five Year Plan.


    Dr Purna Chandra Padhan

    M.A. (Sambalpur University), Ph.D. (University of Hyderabad)

    Demand and Business Forecasting

    He has more than twenty years of teaching and research experience in the area of macro-monetary economics, empirical finance, applied econometrics and time series analysis. His area of interest for research are relating to monetary policy transmission mechanism, liquidity adjustment facility, inter linkages between financial markets, etc. He has several years of work experience in the application of various software such as R, Eviews, SPSS, STATA, MINITAB etc. He has published several research papers in reputed national and international journals, presented papers in various national and international conferences, and actively participated in various seminars/workshops and conducted MDP programmes. He has qualified UGC-NET (JRF) in Mathematical Economics.


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    Management Development Programme

    Demand and Business Forecasting